FireAngel (FA.) – On the turn?

Whether consciously or otherwise, most people will be familiar with the three act structure which is commonly employed in everything from classical plays to modern romantic comedies.

Given that investment turnarounds can manifest themselves in very sudden and profitable price movements it is therefore understandable that investors have been looking for any sign that the unusually long second act in the drama that is FireAngel might finally be over.

For close watchers, almost any kind of punctuation is now seized upon as a sign that Act II’s “rising action” (Wikipedia: “[which] typically depicts the protagonist’s attempt to resolve the problem initiated by the first turning point, only to find themselves in ever worsening situations.”) has come to an end. Even the changing of the year was enough to inspire new hope amongst some investors, triggering a rise of 50% on no news, before Monday’s further profits warning led some to dismiss the recovery as a fairy tale. Still, perhaps today’s announcement of further management change is the sign investors have been looking for?

On AIM the closest equivalent to the curtain coming down is suspension, and while plays conventionally have a neat conclusion to signal it’s time to leave the theatre, on AIM punters have a tendency to sit there bemused hoping for one final act. With FireAngel it is very difficult to see how they can get themselves out of the current mess, supporting my view that some kind of deus/dea ex machina is imminent in the form of a rescue fundraising or takeover bid.

FireAngel’s major success to-date has been to turn disappointment into an art form, and the beauty of art is that interpretation is in the eye of the beholder. Even if this story ends in tragedy for recent and current shareholders, I am optimistic it can ultimately prove a success for staff and other stakeholders.

7:59 cut – STAF

Staffline (STAF) – FY Update

Audit Background

On 27th June (5 months later than the previous year and 3 days before the suspension deadline), Staffline issued their full-year results and Annual Report 2018. Prior to resigning the previous auditors said (amongst other things):

Our preliminary extended audit procedures identified evidence which raised concerns regarding the completeness of information provided previously by management to us in relation to customer claims and disputes.

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7:59 cut – CMCX, ACSO

CMC Markets (CMCX) – Q3 Update

CMC Markets shocked and confused the markets with their H1 2020 figures. In October they said:

Changes made to the internal business model have resulted in the retention of a greater proportion of client income, meaning that the Group expects the CFD business net trading revenue to be approximately £22 million higher than the £63 million reported in H1 2019 at approximately £85 million.

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7:59 cut – RBG, QUIZ, BKS

Revolution Bars (RBG) – H1 Update

The company today issues a trading update including the Christmas / New Year period. While the headlines are bombastic, the most relevant figure is that like-for-like sales for the second half are +1.2% despite significant spending on refurbishments. Not only is this likely to be barely sufficient to cover increases in staffing costs from the ever-increasing minimum wage, but it also underlines just how necessary ongoing capex is, and the irrelevance of EBITDA figures from an equity holder’s perspective.

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