FinnCap – Trading Update Preview

Background

In March I wrote about finnCap, explaining why they were my preferred play amongst the brokers and demonstrating how their performance could be largely established from publicly available information.

Unfortunately the piece was not completed before a strong trading update was issued, confirming my findings. Fortunately they were a significant part of my portfolio when this happened:

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Vianet – FY 2021 Results

This is a company that I mostly sold out of in late 2019 when the P/E hit 20x. During 2020 I sold the remainder when it was clear that both their pub and vending machine businesses would be severely hit by the covid response for a year or more. Today’s results (and annual report) are worse than I could have imagined at that time (specifically, revenue is 25% worse than I then forecast) yet I see the share price is higher.

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Revolution Bars – Post Fundraising Outlook

The Act nightclub was a mess Sunday after a wild final night of partying. Staffers were informed before the doors opened late Saturday that The Act was being shut down by the club's ownership. Bro ...

Nightclubs have been in long term decline in the UK, much of Europe and presumably worldwide for many years as documented in this article from 2018. Within this market, Revolution Bars has underperformed, with bars closed, leases surrendered and the share price losing two thirds of its value even prior to Covid.

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FinnCap – Going Nord

For those who like their investing to be more Hygge than Scandi-thriller, the Danish expression “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” can provide some useful insight. Wouldn’t it be easier and safer to be able to accurately predict company performance based on what has already publicly happened rather than what may or may not be disclosed in the future?

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2020 Review (pt2) – Stockopedia Challenge

Introduction

This article is part of a series as follows:

  • Part 1 – Benchmarks
  • Part 2 (this post) – Stockopedia Challenge: BKS, CRL, UPGS, VLX, WEY

Coming soon:

  • Part 3 – BOKU, GAW, SOM, THRU, UCG
  • Part 4 – TBD

The Challenge

At the end of 2019 Stockopedia set up an open Stock Picking Challenge to last the length of 2020 based on a five-stock equally-weighted portfolio. No trading is allowed and dividends are ignored. The main purpose of this was presumably to confirm that Stockopedia subscribers outperform non-subscribers (which I don’t doubt) and imply a causal relationship between paying your fees and getting better returns.

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2020 Review (pt1) – Benchmarks

Contents

Coming soon:

  • Part 3 – BOKU, GAW, SOM, THRU, UCG
  • Part 4 – TBD

Benchmarks

Before I discuss my investment performance this year I think it is worth talking about benchmarks. I appreciate this isn’t the most interesting topic in the world, but it was something I needed to review and, especially since there were a couple of surprises along the way, I thought it was worth writing up.

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