2021 Review – Initial Top Five

Introduction

In this first part of my 2021 review I look at the different measures of stock picking / trading performance through the year, before comparing them and then doing a deep dive into what were my initial top 5 positions at the start of the year as well as a couple I didn’t carry forward from 2020 to 2021.

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2020 Review (pt2) – Stockopedia Challenge

Introduction

This article is part of a series as follows:

  • Part 1 – Benchmarks
  • Part 2 (this post) – Stockopedia Challenge: BKS, CRL, UPGS, VLX, WEY

Coming soon:

  • Part 3 – BOKU, GAW, SOM, THRU, UCG
  • Part 4 – TBD

The Challenge

At the end of 2019 Stockopedia set up an open Stock Picking Challenge to last the length of 2020 based on a five-stock equally-weighted portfolio. No trading is allowed and dividends are ignored. The main purpose of this was presumably to confirm that Stockopedia subscribers outperform non-subscribers (which I don’t doubt) and imply a causal relationship between paying your fees and getting better returns.

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7:59 cut – UPGS

UPGS Trading Update

UPGS own, manage, design and develop of a range of value-focused consumer goods brands including owned brands such as Progress (cookware) and licenced brands such as Russell Hobbs. They listed in March 2017 and quickly rose to above 200p, before being hit by various problems that brought them to lows of 30p. They could still be bought for less than 40p at the beginning of this year before the recovery became fully apparent leading to highs over 85p. More recently the share price has been drifting.

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UPGS Research Note Commentary

Equity Development have issued a new research note this morning. This and their previous notes can be found here.

As expected they raise their 2019 EPS forecasts following todays H1 results, but only modestly from 7.0p to 7.2p. Given that H2 2018 cannot be used as a reliable comparitor, the considerable changes to the business since H2 2017 and the £1.4m of revenue brought forward from H2, this is very difficult to sense check.

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