2021 Review – Initial Top Five


In this first part of my 2021 review I look at the different measures of stock picking / trading performance through the year, before comparing them and then doing a deep dive into what were my initial top 5 positions at the start of the year as well as a couple I didn’t carry forward from 2020 to 2021.

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2020 Review (pt2) – Stockopedia Challenge


This article is part of a series as follows:

  • Part 1 – Benchmarks
  • Part 2 (this post) – Stockopedia Challenge: BKS, CRL, UPGS, VLX, WEY

Coming soon:

  • Part 3 – BOKU, GAW, SOM, THRU, UCG
  • Part 4 – TBD

The Challenge

At the end of 2019 Stockopedia set up an open Stock Picking Challenge to last the length of 2020 based on a five-stock equally-weighted portfolio. No trading is allowed and dividends are ignored. The main purpose of this was presumably to confirm that Stockopedia subscribers outperform non-subscribers (which I don’t doubt) and imply a causal relationship between paying your fees and getting better returns.

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7:59 cut – Beeks H1 Results

Beeks have issued their H1 2020 results this morning. The key figures are revenues of £4.29m (up 23%) and terminal recurring revenue up 37% to £10.20m. Revenues are moderately below my model for H1 apparently principally due to weakness in their core business. There also appears to have been no growth at the CNS acquisition, but this was as guided.

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7:59 cut – RBG, QUIZ, BKS

Revolution Bars (RBG) – H1 Update

The company today issues a trading update including the Christmas / New Year period. While the headlines are bombastic, the most relevant figure is that like-for-like sales for the second half are +1.2% despite significant spending on refurbishments. Not only is this likely to be barely sufficient to cover increases in staffing costs from the ever-increasing minimum wage, but it also underlines just how necessary ongoing capex is, and the irrelevance of EBITDA figures from an equity holder’s perspective.

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Beeks – Contract Wins

Beeks today announced two contract wins amounting to an annualised £1.1m / year.

In the context of FY 2019 revenues of £7.4m, Beeks were fully justified in describing these as “significant”, but they are not obviously game changing. My estimates already factored in two new contract wins contributing to their H2 although in aggregate the contracts are significantly larger and accrue somewhat earlier than projected. Given the likely ramp-up profile, the impact remains limited in FY 2020 and my revenue estimate increases only modestly from £10.0 to £10.3m.

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Beeks – No news is bad news…

…for their FY 2020 revenues and profits. But, like any growth company, the majority of its value is based not on the current or next years profits, but those in 5 or 10 years time. Nonetheless, with their ability to repeatably win large contracts unproven, and a track record of missing targets as long as their lifetime as a listed company, it this doesn’t bode well for the future. You can read more about Beeks here.

I now see revenues of £10.0m for FY 2020, with £4.7m of those in H1. This compares with a consensus forecast of £10.7m which has not updated since September. Given the lumpiness of orders at this stage (and recent history) anybody predicting FY 2021 is braver than I – the consensus is £13.5m.

I plan to update ahead of the H1 results with an EPS forecast.

Beeks FY 2019 Update

For the background to Beeks (BKS), please see my June article.

On the 5th September, Beeks issued their full year results to 30th June 2019 which I commented on in that morning’s 7:59 cut. Given the interest in my earlier articles I had intended to give a fuller update later that day. Initially I delayed so I could listen to the live results presentation, then further so I could double check against the recording (published on 19th September at piworld.co.uk), and then inevitably other investing work got in the way. So apologies for the delay, but here it is, hopefully better late than never.

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